LIGHTNING PREDICTION TECHNOLOGY Lightning Protection Institute Volume 5 Number 2, September 15, 1998 Lightning is the result of electrostatic migration and attraction ... not just an instantaneous explosion of air restricted to the immediate proximity of the storm cloud. By relying on where the last strike occurred, or where the actual storm rages, tragedy will continue to be a real possibility. June 20, 1997... THOR GUARD lightning prediction system clears Park Ridge, Illinois playground ten minutes prior to an incoming storm's first strike. Lightning strike hits the ballfield's scoreboard and takes out the irrigation system. No injuries... Events similar to this at sporting arenas, amusement parks, airports, government installations, etc. occur on a regular basis. Many critics claim that the occurrence of lightning cannot be predicted, yet it is done daily at hundreds and hundreds of sites worldwide. In fact, since 1975, a prominent prediction company has logged more than 2.6 million hours of incident-free operation. Since 1996 in portable use throughout the U.S. on all major men's and women's golf tours... and at all Atlanta Olympics venues, it has logged 26,820 hours of incident-free warning. Considering these statistics, and positive on-site NOAA, D.O.D. and SBIR investigation and observation reports, lightning prediction technology appears to be delivering on its promise. Lightning can strike from a distant storm 8 to 30 miles away. Because such strikes are totally unexpected, they generally result in injury or death. Relying on the "Flash to Bang" method of warning will continue to cause injuries because appropriate warnings may not be given until after the strike. In short, lightning is a result of electrostatic migration and attraction ... not just an instantaneous explosion of air restricted to the immediate proximity of the storm cloud. If one relies solely on where the last strike occurred, or where the actual storm rages, tragedy will continue to be a real possibility. The atmospheric model currently in use serving prediction technology assigns positive energy to the ground (earth), negative energy to the lower clouds, positive energy to the upper altitudes of the storm, and negative energy to the Van Allen Belt. Some still claim that this is backwards. However- this "theoretical" position has repeatedly proven to be correct for more than 24 years. In fact, newly discovered lightning phenomenon like sprites, can only be explained logically within this model! Bolts-out-of-the-blue can also be easily explained within this model. This unique database is the result of many years of privately funded electrostatic atmospheric research. Lightning detection's reactive technology has its place. Large scale networks like the National Lightning Detection Network can indicate with acceptable accuracy if storms in progress 20 or more miles from 'ground zero' are producing lightning. AM radios or handheld detection systems can help individuals removed from more accurate warning systems identify the presence of lightning at significant distances. However, because of the very nature of lightning traveling great distances from a storm center, detection cannot consistently provide local warning of many forms of lightning with any degree of consistent reliability. The Lightning Protection Institute provides a vital role in developing and instituting safer lightning protection standards nationwide. While less worthy lightning safety organizations vie for respect, organizations which strongly support the "Flash to Bang" method of lightning warning for protecting children and adults at parks and pools nationwide, it is LPI who continues to lead because of a technology-based investigatory foundation. Like LPI, the role of lightning prediction researchers, manufacturers and installers is to save lives and property, and actively work with and support the Lightning Protection Institute. When it comes to saving lives, vanity and pride should not stand in the way of proven progress. Researchers and inventors did not create the earth's electrostatic atmosphere - but have dedicated years to its research. Hundreds of years ago, the greatest scientific minds occupying space on a clearly flat earth told Columbus he would fall off the world if he sailed far enough towards the western horizon. Today's great scientific minds claim the occurrence of lightning cannot be predicted ... at all! Lightning prediction technology is following Columbus' lead, proving that enlightened thought, scientific research and applied theory still work, even in the 20th Century! Lightning Protection Institute 3335 N. Arlington Heights Road, Suite E Arlington Hts., IL 60004 Tel: 847.577.7200 800.488.6864 Fax: 847.577.7276 Email: strike@lightning.org